Research

Publications

• Uncertainty Premia, Sovereign Default Risk, and State-Contingent Debt

  with Francisco Roch
  JPE Macroeconomics, vol.1(2), pp.334-370, 2023   [pdf]   [Slides]   [IMF_wp]   [Codes]   [BibTeX]
  [Foco Económico]   [LSE Business Review]   [IMF Research Perspectives]     [Twitter]

• Sovereign Debt

  with Leonardo Martinez, Francisco Roch, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
  in Gürkaynak and Wright (eds.), Research Handbook of Financial Markets, Edward Elgar Publishing, 2023   [IMF_wp]   [Twitter]   [BibTeX]

• On the Optimal Speed of Sovereign Deleveraging with Precautionary Savings

  with Thomas Philippon
  IMF Economic Review, vol.66(2), pp.375–413, June 2018   [pdf]   [Codes]   [BibTeX]

• Markups under Uncertainty: Variations on Price Decisions in High Inflation

  with Daniel Heymann
  in Damill, Rapetti, and Rozenwurcel (eds.), Macroeconomics and Development: Roberto Frenkel and the Economics of Latin America, Columbia University Press, 2016   [BibTeX]

Working Papers

• The Aggregate-Demand Doom Loop: Precautionary Motives and the Welfare Costs of Sovereign Risk

  Revised & Resubmitted at AEJ Macroeconomics   [pdf]   [IMF_wp]  

• Reputation and the Credibility of Inflation Plans

  with Rumen Kostadinov   [pdf]   [IMF_wp]   [Twitter]

• Sovereign Debt Tolerance with Potentially Permanent Costs of Default

  with Marcos Chamon   [pdf]   [Slides]

Work in Progress

• Central Bank Swap Lines as Bilateral Sovereign Debt (with César Sosa Padilla) Early draft available upon request.   [Slides]
• Are Central Bank Swaps Hidden Debt? (with Gonzalo Huertas)
• Non-Homothetic Sudden Stops with Capital (with Hernán Seoane)