Research

Publications

• The Aggregate-Demand Doom Loop: Precautionary Motives and the Welfare Costs of Sovereign Risk

  [pdf]   [IMF wp]   Abstract   BibTeX
  Forthcoming at AEJ Macroeconomics, vol. 17(3), July 2025

• Sovereign Debt Tolerance with Potentially Permanent Costs of Default

  with Marcos Chamon   [pdf]   [Slides]   Abstract   BibTeX
  IMF Economic Review, August 2024

• Uncertainty Premia, Sovereign Default Risk, and State-Contingent Debt

  with Francisco Roch   [pdf]   [Slides]   [IMF wp]   [Codes]   [Foco Económico]   [LSE Business Review]   [IMF Research Perspectives]   [Twitter]   Abstract   BibTeX
  JPE Macroeconomics, vol.1(2), pp.334-370, 2023

• Sovereign Debt

  with Leonardo Martinez, Francisco Roch, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer   [IMF wp]   [Twitter]   Abstract   BibTeX
  in Gürkaynak and Wright (eds.), Research Handbook of Financial Markets, Edward Elgar Publishing, 2023

• On the Optimal Speed of Sovereign Deleveraging with Precautionary Savings

  with Thomas Philippon   [pdf]   [Codes]   Abstract   BibTeX
  IMF Economic Review, vol.66(2), pp.375–413, June 2018

• Markups under Uncertainty: Variations on Price Decisions in High Inflation

  with Daniel Heymann   BibTeX
  in Damill, Rapetti, and Rozenwurcel (eds.), Macroeconomics and Development: Roberto Frenkel and the Economics of Latin America, Columbia University Press, 2016

Working Papers

• Reputation and the Credibility of Inflation Plans

  with Rumen Kostadinov   [pdf]   [IMF wp]   [Twitter]   Abstract
  Revise-and-Resubmit at Journal of Economic Theory

Work in Progress

• The Perils of Bilateral Sovereign Debt (with César Sosa Padilla) Early draft available upon request.   [Slides]
• Risk Aversion in Sovereign Debt and Default (with Francisco Roch)
• On the Optimal Design of GDP-Linked Bonds with Trend Growth (with Francisco Roch)
• Are Central Bank Swaps Hidden Debt? (with Gonzalo Huertas)
• Non-Homothetic Sudden Stops with Capital (with Hernán Seoane)